By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

PHILIPPINE President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. might face a tougher political landscape in the second half of his term as early midterm election results signal a strengthened opposition in Congress, possibly complicating his agenda, political analysts said on Tuesday.

“President Marcos is expected to become a lame duck regardless of the election results,” Dennis C. Coronacion, who heads the University of Sto. Tomas Political Science Department, said in a phone call. “However, his situation is worse than the usual lame-duck phase.”

“In the second half of his term, he is likely to face greater challenges, particularly from stronger opposition in the Senate and a possible decline in his support within the House of Representatives,” he added.

Unofficial election tallies show that Mr. Marcos’ Senate candidates secured six of the 12 contested seats in the May 12 elections, falling short of the nine seats won by contenders backed by former Presidents Rodrigo R. Duterte and the opposition.

Incumbent presidents often see their political influence wane after midterm elections as voters get to reshape Congress by either endorsing administration-backed candidates or shifting support to the opposition, treating the vote as a referendum on the sitting government.

Lawmakers may focus on advancing the Marcos administration’s agenda unrelated to the Marcos-Duterte feud to sidestep a possible deadlock between the two camps, whose political feud has intensified in the past year, Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at the De La Salle University, said via Facebook chat.

The Senate race was pivotal for two of the Philippines’ most powerful political families, with its outcome potentially shaping the course of Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio’s ouster trial.

Ms. Duterte had emerged as a frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election, setting the stage for a challenge against the Marcoses amid a political feud that resulted in her impeachment and her father’s arrest based on an International Criminal Court request.

However, she faces a Senate trial in June, where a ruling could potentially bar her from holding public office permanently, casting uncertainty over her presidential ambitions.

NOT A VICTORY
“Sara Duterte’s camp did not get a resounding victory. She just got more breathing room and space for more options now,” Maria Ela L. Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, said in a Viber message.

The Marcos administration’s Senate candidates may have lost support after the impeachment of Ms. Duterte and the arrest of Mr. Duterte for alleged crimes against humanity, said Arjan P. Aguirre, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University.

“The Dutertes used these issues to turn the tables and mobilize their supporters not just to protect themselves against further attacks but also for the 2025 midterm elections,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

A majority of Filipinos are also growing dissatisfied with the government of Mr. Marcos, leading some of his candidates to fall short of the dozen Senate seats up for grabs, said Ms. Atienza.  “Many are not satisfied with the current state of things.”

‘VOTE OF CONFIDENCE’
In a statement, Navotas Rep. Tobias Reynald M. Tiangco said he considers the victory of some Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas (Alliance for a New Philippines) candidates as a “vote of confidence” for the Marcos administration’s political vision.

“We view this as a clear signal to move forward with greater urgency and focus, guided by the aspirations of our people and committed to addressing the issues that concern them the most,” Mr. Tiangco, campaign manager of the Marcos-backed Senate slate, said.

Also on Tuesday, House Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez said his political party, the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD), secured its position as the most dominant political party at the chamber, with 104 of its 128 congressional candidates winning a seat.

“This is a vote of confidence not just in our candidates, but in the kind of leadership and unity that Lakas-CMD represents,” he said in a statement.

He said that lawmakers part of his political party will work alongside Marcos-backed senators to push for reforms.

Mr. Romualdez in early May said the chamber would focus on passing bills seeking to boost job creation and support small businesses, while also looking at modernizing the agriculture sector when the next Congress convenes.

The House leadership may be challenged by some Duterte allies at the chamber, Mr. Aguirre said. “If there are enough numbers, the challenge will be successful and expect a change of leadership.”

The Speaker would likely politicize the national budget and hand out political favors to pacify possible leadership coups, he added.

The Office of Mr. Romualdez did not immediately reply to a Viber message seeking comment.