May cargo numbers at the Port of Los Angeles marked the lowest monthly output in more than two years, Executive Director Gene Seroka said during his monthly online media briefing on Friday, June 13 — adding that tariffs continue to hit labor jobs and consumer prices.

“While May volume is typically stronger than April, as we approach our traditional peak season,” he said, “our imports dropped 19% compared to last month.

“Unless long-term, comprehensive trade agreements are reached soon, we’ll likely see higher prices and less selection during the year-end holiday season,” Seroka added. “The uncertainty created by fast-changing tariff policies has caused hardships for consumers, businesses and labor.”

The Port of Los Angeles processed 716,619 twenty-foot equivalent units in May, 5% less than the same month last year.

After 10 straight months of year-over-year growth, overall cargo volume slowed because of the impact of tariffs on both imports and exports, Seroka said.

Seroka added, however, that the port expects to see about 122,000 TEUs come in next week and then about 124,000 the week after that, which, he said, is “pretty average” and compares to the “pretty weak” start of June last year.

“We will see a little bit of a peak season in the month of July, arrivals trying to get ready for the all-important Christmas and year-end holiday season,” Seroka said. “But again, retailers are not telling me that they’re boosting inventory levels to have wide selections on products beginning that Thanksgiving week and running to the end of the year.”

The Israel-Iran conflict, meanwhile, adds even more complexity to the trade industry,Seroka said. Israel launched a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities on Thursday. Iran has since responded by launching missles at Israel.

“The majority of carriers are still going around the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding the Red Sea, avoiding the Suez Canal, and what we’ve seen with prices on oil spikes overnight, that’s a consideration too for the liner shipping companies with respect to the bunker fuel and other products that they use for those ships,” Seroka said. “So everybody in this industry will be monitoring that. It’s a situation that’s one more variable in this deep equation of complexity.”

Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the nonpartisan Budget Lab at Yale University, joined Seroka to discuss the research the organization has been doing on the impacts tariffs are having on American consumers.

“The Budget Lab has been modeling the impact of tariffs on American households since the first announcements earlier this year,” Tedeschi said. “Tariffs would raise average prices by 1.5%, a loss in purchasing power of nearly $2,500 per household per year.

“But that impact isn’t the same across all families or products,” he added. “Lower-income and working-class families see a bigger hit than higher-income families, and products more likely to be imported like shoes, apparel and consumer electronics will see double-digit percent price increases.”

While it’s promising that the U.S. and China were talking, Seroka said, tariffs remain elevated on average due to a cumulative effect.

“Imports from China to the United States are at 55% tariffs. Conversely, 10% tariffs in a retaliatory fashion have been placed on all U.S. exports,” he said. “There’s much more work to be done here.”

There is a need for clarity to provide long-range planning and “much lower tariffs,” Seroka said.

“I see this through three key lenses: consumers, business and labor,” he said.

Currently, he said, the focus is on back-to-school and Halloween shipments before the year-end holidays hit.

Cargo for those “micro seasons needs to be here on the ground,” Seroka said.

“The year-end holiday cycle usually sees purchase orders going into Asia factories during the month of May,” Seroka said. “Maybe we could lead into June, but absolutely the full stop date of July 1 is fast approaching.”

On the labor side, he said, a study showed that “for every two longshore members who walked into the hiring hall, one went home without work. This has hit us right here at the Port of L.A.”

Tariffs announced this year to date have raised the average rate in the U.S. by an additional 12%, Tedeschi said.

Businesses also are being cautious, he said.

“Probably,” Tedeschi said, “consumers and businesses in the very short run this month are being strategic about what they’re importing now that they know that tariffs are in effect.”

Asked about a best-case-scenario, Seroka said it will be “finding a way for the world’s two largest economies to work together.”

“Buying products out of China right now,” he said, “still costs one and a half times more than it did earlier this year.”

Going forward, Seroka added, “we’ll likely see lower inventories, fewer selections on store shelves and higher prices in some cases.”