By Ashley Erika O. Jose, Reporter

BROWNOUTS have been a recurring problem for the Philippines during summer, and Monday’s midterm elections won’t be spared from a looming power interruption that threatens their integrity, according to climate scientists.

“Although elevated electricity demand during the summer contributes to power supply issues experienced during these months, forced outages of baseload power plants have constantly exacerbated the situation,” said Jephraim C. Manansala, chief data scientist at Manila-based think tank Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC). 

The Luzon and Visayas grids are projected to run out of adequate power reserves this year, while the Mindanao grid is expected to keep normal reserves this summer, he told BusinessWorld in an interview.

“Power plant outages especially unplanned ones, and plants running at a derated capacity could severely disrupt the balance between supply and demand, significantly hindering the grid’s ability to meet the country’s growing energy needs, especially during peak demand hour,” Mr. Manansala said.

In 2024, NGCP recorded 16 red alerts and 62 yellow alerts. This year, the Luzon grid has only been placed under yellow alert on March 5, according to the NGCP website.

Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian has urged the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) and Department of Energy (DoE) to ensure enough electricity supply in the summer months, particularly this month as Filipinos vote for a new set of congressmen, half of the 24-member Senate and thousands of local officials on May 12.

Gerry C. Arances, executive director at the Center for Energy, Ecology and Development (CEED), blames the country’s continued reliance on coal for its power supply instability.

“Coal and gas plants going on unscheduled outages and triggering red and yellow alerts is the direct result of dependence on fossil fuels,” he said in a text message. 

The Philippines is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with coal accounting for more than 60% of its power mix. Natural gas and oil-based sources also contribute significantly. While the country is rich in renewable energy resources like geothermal and biomass, their use is less extensive.

Energy Secretary Raphael P.M. Lotilla earlier said the country might be in a better situation this year because several power projects are coming online and newly energized transmission lines could deliver more output.

On Monday, he said there would be stable and reliable power supply on May 12.

“We’d like to assure everyone that the Energy Task Force on Elections is doing its best to ensure unimpeded power supply during the election period,” Energy Undersecretary Felix William B. Fuentebella said in a statement.

He said generating companies have committed to avoid unplanned outages during the elections.

He added that there had been issues or concerns about the power lines in the Visayas and Mindanao. “But as a whole, on the demand and supply outlook, it is stable.”

“Although we are preparing for any eventual outages, we have tapped the NGCP and distribution utilities to check potential load side particularly in the canvassing centers,” he added.

‘ON THEIR TOES’
Mr. Manansala said unplanned power outages beyond the conservative assumptions could further deplete reserve levels, increasing the risk of grid instability.

This year, the DoE projects peak demand at 14,769 megawatts (MW) for Luzon, 3,111 MW for the Visayas and 2,789 MW for Mindanao. If realized, these will surpass last year’s peak demand of 14,016 MW for Luzon, 2,681 MW for the Visayas and 2,577 MW for Mindanao.

“The DoE, Energy Regulatory Commission and other power authorities need to be on their toes in ensuring that generation companies and service providers deliver stable electricity, considering projections that warn of potential yellow alerts in May,” Mr. Arances said.

Any power player that triggers a power outage should be penalized, he added.

“The reality of perennial power outages, however, goes well beyond May,” he pointed out. “We would be gambling on the integrity of our election every single time unless we address the root cause — grave dependence on coal and gas power plants, which are the main culprit to power unreliability due to their vulnerability to forced shutdowns, especially in the summer.”

The recurring issue of power supply deficiency highlights the vulnerability of the grid system, which is centralized and heavily reliant on baseload plants such as coal and natural gas, ICSC said in a report.

It said the government should focus on energy efficiency and conservation to ensure adequate power supply in the summer.

Consumers also play a critical role in demand-side management by adopting energy efficiency and conservation practices, it said.

Measures such as shifting energy-intensive activities to nonpeak hours, upgrading to efficient technologies and adopting energy-saving habits in homes and workplaces could significantly alleviate grid strain, it added.

Romil Hernandez, director for energy policy at ICSC, said the Luzon power grid might be placed under yellow alert this month, but the likelihood of a red alert is unlikely until June or after the election period.

“In the Visayas, tight supply is also expected in June,” he said in a Viber message. “Mindanao, on the other hand, is expected to have normal reserves and could export power to the Visayas.”

“Like in previous years, no major planned maintenance outages are scheduled in the second quarter, but even if power supply during the elections falls within the normal operating margin, vigilance is necessary to manage unplanned outages,” he added.