By CHRISTINE FERNANDO, Associated Press

CHICAGO (AP) — A son of notorious Mexican drug kingpin “El Chapo” is expected to plead guilty to U.S. drug trafficking charges at a Wednesday hearing. He would be the first of El Chapo’s sons facing similar charges in the U.S. to enter a plea deal.

Prosecutors allege Ovidio Guzman Lopez and his brother, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, ran a faction of the Sinaloa cartel. They became known locally as the “Chapitos,” or little Chapos, and federal authorities in 2023 described the operation as a massive effort to send “staggering” quantities of fentanyl into the U.S.

Ovidio Guzman Lopez previously pleaded not guilty to drug trafficking, money laundering and firearms charges tied to his leadership role in the cartel. Online court records indicate he is scheduled to appear in court Wednesday to change his plea as part of a deal with prosecutors.

Speculation about a deal has been percolating for months, as behind-the-scenes negotiations have quietly progressed.

Ovidio Guzman Lopez’s father, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, is serving a life sentence after being convicted in 2019 for his role as the former leader of the Sinaloa cartel, having smuggled mountains of cocaine and other drugs into the United States over 25 years. The brothers allegedly assumed their father’s former role as leaders of the cartel.

Ovidio Guzman Lopez was arrested in Mexico in 2023 and extradited to the United States. He initially pleaded not guilty but has signaled in recent months his intent to change his plea.

Joaquin Guzman Lopez and another longtime Sinaloa leader, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, were arrested in July 2024 in Texas after they landed in the U.S. on a private plane. Both men have pleaded not guilty to multiple charges. Their dramatic capture prompted a surge in violence in Mexico’s northern state of Sinaloa as two factions of the Sinaloa cartel clashed.

Longtime Chicago mob attorney Joe “The Shark” Lopez, who has represented Chicago mobsters Mario “The Arm” Rainone and Anthony “Tough Tony” Calabrese, said he expects both of El Chapo’s sons to pursue plea deals and avoid trials.

He estimated that Ovidio Guzman Lopez still may face about 20 to 25 years in prison based on the charges.

“This is an international drug case,” Lopez said. “These cases are usually very solid, almost unbeatable. There is no upside to them going to trial because they can’t win. And he saw what happened when his dad went to trial.”

Laurie Levenson, law professor at Loyola Law School and a former assistant U.S. attorney in Los Angeles, added that a plea can be strategic to avoid a revealing trial, full of testimony about cartel operations and the actions of both sons and their father.

“For Chapo, I don’t think he’d want to get into the details on his family’s conduct,” she said.

Last week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed skepticism about the possibility of Ovidio Guzman Lopez reaching a plea deal. She reminded people that Mexican soldiers died in the operation to apprehend him.

Ten soldiers and 19 alleged members of the cartel died during the Jan. 5, 2023, operation.

“What did the United States government call organized crime groups in Mexico?” Sheinbaum asked during her daily press briefing last week. To which, those assembled called out “terrorist organizations.”

She suggested that by negotiating with Guzman Lopez, Washington was doing one of the things President Donald Trump’s administration has said not to do.

Associated Press writer Fabiola Sánchez in Mexico City contributed to this report.