Sugar production exceeds 1.782-MMT initial forecast

SUGAR PRODUCTION for crop year 2024-2025 is now expected to come in at 1.837 million metric tons (MMT), with output so far having already exceeded the initial forecast of 1.782 MMT, according to the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA).

Currently, sugar produced has hit 1.815 MMT, SRA Administrator Pablo Luis Azcona said in a statement, adding that weak yields have been offset by the increase in cane planted, with farmers betting they will recover their costs based on their assessment of current farmgate prices.

The new projected output is still lower than the actual output of 1.92 MMT in the preceding crop year and will come in just below the US Department of Agriculture’s 1.85-MMT forecast.
Mr. Azcona said the SRA’s initial estimate of 1.782 MMT was based on an assessment of the health of the cane after El Niño.

“We are ending on a positive note, and we can also attribute this to the effort of this administration in helping stabilize prices since 2022,” he said.

He said fair farmgate prices have encouraged farmers to risk replanting their El Niño-damaged crops using new varieties.

Farmers have been hopeful that prices will eventually make up for the very high cost of production, he noted.

“In fact, fair prices are also encouraging new farmers to plant sugarcane.”

The Visayas accounted for 71% of total production, of which Negros Island produced 63% and Panay 6.3%. The remainder was contributed by plantations in Cebu and Leyte.

Mindanao, which the SRA considers as the next frontier for the sugar industry, is projected to end the crop year with an almost 24% share, with Luzon contributing nearly 5% of the national total.

“We hope next milling, we will get higher tonnage and, most importantly, more sugar per ton of cane (LkgTC),” Mr. Azcona said.

Currently, Mindanao has the highest average in LkgTC yield at 1.74, followed by Negros with 1.65, and Panay and Luzon both at 1.54.

The SRA also cited improved soil conditions, enhanced irrigation methods, and the revision of the sugarcane crop calendar as contributing to the improved estimates.